Abstract:
In Germany, there is currently a lively debate in higher education policy on the question of whether and to what extent universities will have to adjust to declining numbers of first-year students and how they can re-spond to this challenge. Based on a model of the components of the social demand for education, this article uses data from official higher education statistics to examine how social demand for higher education has developed over the last two decades and what scenarios can be expected in the coming years. One reason for the current decline is the demographic development; however, the birth cohorts from which first-year students come are increasing again. Other influences include the mobility of international students and the return to the nine-year Gymnasium. The decrease is therefore likely to be limited in time. It is also clear that the decline is by no means affecting all universities, but varies greatly depending on the region, university and subject.
Über die Autoren:
- Christian Kerst,
Dr., wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter am Deutschen Zentrum für Hochschul- und Wissenschaftsforschung (DZHW), Hannover - Andrä Wolter,
Prof. (i.R.) Dr., Professor für Erziehungswissenschaftliche Forschung zum Tertiären Bildungsbereich, Institut für Erziehungswissenschaften, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin
